Does Trump Really Want The Russia-Ukraine War To End? Or Eying A Business Deal, Following ‘Want Ukraine To Give Precious Minerals’ In Return For US Aid? Mineral Wars And What Will Kyiv Do Now?

Donald Trump has always been known for his business-first approach to politics, but his latest suggestion regarding Ukraine has raised eyebrows and sparked debate. Is he genuinely looking to end the Russia-Ukraine war, or is he angling for a lucrative mineral deal in exchange for U.S. support?

In what many are calling outright extortion, Trump hinted on Monday that continued U.S. aid to Ukraine might come with strings attached—namely, access to Ukraine’s rich reserves of rare earth materials and other critical minerals. Speaking from the Oval Office, he vented his frustration over what he perceives as an imbalance in aid contributions between the U.S. and Europe, stating:

“We’re looking to do a deal with Ukraine where they’re going to secure what we’re giving them with their rare earth and other things.”

While Trump has repeatedly claimed he could bring an end to the war “in 24 hours,” the specifics remain vague. His latest remarks suggest negotiations are ongoing—but not necessarily about peace alone.

Mineral Grab or Military Strategy?

The big question is – What exactly does Trump want? Rare earth elements, lithium, titanium, uranium—Ukraine has them all, and in vast quantities. In its “Victory Plan,” Kyiv itself acknowledged that it could supply its strategic partners with “natural resources and critical metals worth trillions of U.S. dollars.”

It’s also worth noting that Trump’s interest in mineral-rich territories isn’t new. His past push to acquire Greenland, a landmass rich in natural resources, speaks volumes about his economic-geopolitical mindset. With Mike Waltz, an advocate for securing rare mineral supplies, being tapped as Trump’s national security adviser, the agenda seems clear—control of resources.

The War on the Ground. Ukraine’s Dwindling Defenses

While Trump plays dealmaker, Ukraine is struggling to hold the line against Russian advances. The situation in Pokrovsk, a critical supply hub, is worsening. A shortage of infantry troops and relentless Russian drone attacks are squeezing Ukrainian forces, leaving them vulnerable. Moscow, sensing weakness, is pressing forward with fresh territorial gains while Trump pushes for negotiations and freezes foreign aid.

Ukrainian commanders have made it clear that logistics win wars. Without sufficient supplies and reinforcements, their ability to hold ground is diminishing. Russian troops have adapted their strategies, using fog and terrain to their advantage, forcing Ukrainian defenses into a precarious position. As one Ukrainian deputy commander aptly put it: “If there is no logistics, there is no infantry, because there is no way to supply it.”

Lessons Learnt From Ongoing War

The French government has reportedly called on the civilian industry, including the automotive sector, to adapt their production lines for large-scale military manufacturing—specifically, the production of kamikaze drones.

The initiative, reported by the French newspaper, signals France’s growing urgency to increase its military capabilities amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Emmanuel Chiva, head of the Direction générale de l’armement (DGA), the French Defense Procurement Agency, emphasized the need for rapid reforms to streamline procurement processes and ramp up mass production.

A key part of this initiative involves the mass production of kamikaze drones. According to the report, at least one major French car manufacturer has already been approached to produce drones similar to those used on the Ukrainian battlefield.
The goal is to manufacture several thousand drones within months, a production scale previously unseen in France’s traditionally slow-moving defense sector.

The move comes in the wake of the war in Ukraine, which has exposed vulnerabilities in the French defense industry’s ability to produce military equipment at the scale and speed required in modern warfare. The widespread use of kamikaze-style drones in Ukraine has illustrated their potential to shift combat strategies, frequently acting as a substitute for traditional artillery fire.

“This is not what our manufacturers are used to because, for decades, it has not been a key criterion for us. So we have to look for industrial experience in other sectors,” said Chiva.

In addition to the automotive industry, the French government is reportedly considering enlisting expertise from sectors such as chemicals, energy, and even food production to support the mass manufacturing of drones and other military hardware.

Shift to Wartime Thinking

NATO is intensifying its efforts to ramp up weapons and equipment production as part of a broader shift towards a “wartime thinking” mentality initiated by newly appointed Secretary General Mark Rutte.

This strategy comes in response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has prompted the military alliance to reconsider its approach to defense manufacturing and readiness.

The war in Ukraine has also exposed vulnerabilities in NATO’s defense capabilities, which led to a fundamental rethinking of how member countries should prepare for future conflicts.

Recently, it was reported that NATO has begun transferring classified information to its defense industry, allowing manufacturers to more effectively respond to the alliance’s evolving needs.

This move includes providing defense companies with classified guidance on which weapons and equipment are most urgently required.
Secretary General Rutte, in his first major address last year, called for member nations to “turbo-charge” defense spending, acknowledging that European countries are ill-prepared for the potential threat posed by Russia.

He warned that NATO is not ready for the challenges it could face in the next four to five years and emphasized the urgency of increasing defense capabilities. The conflict in Ukraine, he noted, has illustrated the importance of being prepared for similar challenges on European soil.

European officials have echoed Rutte’s concerns, with EU diplomatic chief Kaja Kallas stating the possibility of Russia targeting a European Union country by as early as 2028.

In her speech at the European Defense Agency conference on January 23, Kallas referred to national intelligence reports indicating that Russia may soon test the EU’s defense capabilities.

She stressed the need for the EU to strengthen its military readiness, pointing out that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s leadership is driven by a “language of force.”

The intensifying threats from Russia have led European nations to accelerate their defense initiatives. Last year, France’s Minister for the Armed Forces, Sebastien Lecornu, signed an unprecedented “UAV pact” designed to bring collaboration between the French military and the country’s drone industry.

This pact aims to develop a strategic unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) capacity, focusing on drones under 150 kilograms.

This pact reflects France’s broader strategy to strengthen its defense capabilities, aligning with NATO’s push for increased production and preparedness in response to evolving security challenges.

The Last Bit. What Now for Ukraine?

Zelenskyy and his government now find themselves in a difficult position. Do they engage in Trump’s transactional politics and barter their mineral wealth for continued military aid, or do they hold their ground—both militarily and diplomatically—risking further territorial losses?

With Russian forces pushing forward and U.S. support now linked to economic interests, Ukraine may have to make some tough choices in the coming months. The war that began with a fight for sovereignty is now becoming a high-stakes game of resources, deals, and shifting allegiances.

Trump’s strategy is clear, but what Kyiv will do next remains the biggest question of all.