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7.1 Magnitude Earthquake Devastates Tibet, Tremors Felt In Nepal. Are We Entering The Himalayan Quake Cycle Of 600 Years And Could Bigger Earthquakes Follow, What About India?
A powerful earthquake near Tibet’s second-largest city, Shigatse, has claimed the lives of dozens, according to reports from Chinese and U.S. monitoring agencies. Tremors were felt hundreds of kilometers away, including in Nepal.
The earthquake struck at 9:05 AM local time (01:05 GMT) on Tuesday, with a depth of 10 kilometers (6.2 miles). The China Earthquake Networks Centre recorded the earthquake at magnitude 6.8, while the U.S. Geological Survey reported it as magnitude 7.1.
According to China’s official Xinhua news agency, nine people were killed in the townships of Changsuo, Quluo, and Cuoguo in Shigatse’s surrounding Tingri county, where many buildings collapsed. Local media reported that dozens more have died. Beijing sources confirmed images from the affected areas showing extensive damage, including collapsed homes and buildings.
One local official stated that these are very remote villages in mountainous areas that are difficult to access, especially now with the harsh winter conditions. Reports confirmed 36 dead and 68 injured so far, and it is expected that these numbers could rise.
Reported images from Lhatse, located about 150 kilometers (93 miles) east of Shigatse, showing collapsed shop fronts and debris spilling onto roads. Shigatse, one of Tibet’s holiest cities, is home to the Panchen Lama, a key figure in Tibetan Buddhism.
Tremors were also felt in northern India’s Bihar state and Nepal’s capital, Kathmandu, around 400 kilometers (248 miles) away, where residents fled buildings as they shook. The quake was felt in the Himalayan region near Mount Everest, with reports of strong shaking in areas like Lobuche in Nepal.
A government official from Nepal’s Namche region stated that while the tremor was strong so far there is no information on damages yet. There have been no reported casualties in Nepal as of now, but local authorities are gathering information. Police and security forces have been mobilized to assess the impact.
Both Nepal and southwestern China are earthquake-prone regions. CCTV reported 29 earthquakes with magnitudes of 3 or higher within 200 kilometers (124 miles) of Shigatse’s epicenter in the past five years, all smaller than Tuesday’s earthquake.
The region has a history of devastating quakes, including the 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China, which killed nearly 70,000 people, and Nepal’s worst earthquake in 2015, which struck near Kathmandu with a magnitude of 7.8, killing around 9,000 people and injuring thousands.
The Repeat Cycle Of Earthquakes In Himalayan Region
The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis.
The Himalayan region is one of the most seismically active zones in the world, primarily due to the ongoing collision between the Indian Plate and the Eurasian Plate. This tectonic activity has historically resulted in significant earthquakes, and the concept of “repeat time” refers to the recurrence interval for large seismic events in this region.
Are We in That Era?
Yes, based on geological studies and historical records, we might indeed be approaching or are already in the era when another major earthquake could occur in the Himalayan region.
Here are the reasons why this assumption holds true –
1) Historical Patterns: Large earthquakes (magnitude 7 and above) in the Himalayan region are estimated to recur every 400–600 years. For instance – the 1505 earthquake (possibly magnitude 8 or higher) is believed to have ruptured a large segment of the central Himalayas.
The region has since seen several moderate to large earthquakes, but a significant portion of the fault remains “locked” and has not released the accumulated strain.
2) Strain Accumulation: The tectonic collision causes the Indian Plate to move northward at a rate of about 5 cm per year. Over centuries, this movement builds up immense stress along the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the major fault line in the region. The lack of a recent mega-earthquake suggests that stress is accumulating and could potentially lead to a massive event.
3) Recent Seismic Activity: Moderate to large earthquakes, such as the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal (magnitude 7.8), illuminate the region’s seismic vulnerability. However, such events release only a fraction of the accumulated strain, leaving the potential for larger earthquakes intact.
4) Geological Studies: Paleoseismological research indicates that certain segments of the Himalayan fault have not experienced major ruptures for centuries, such as the central and western Himalayan regions. These “seismic gaps” are areas of concern for future earthquakes. An earthquake stronger than the 7.1 magnitude that recently struck Tibet is not only possible but highly likely in the Himalayan region.
The tectonic collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates can generate earthquakes of magnitude 8 or higher, as evidenced by historical records. For instance, the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake (magnitude ~8.4) and the 1905 Kangra earthquake (magnitude ~7.8) caused widespread devastation.
So what is the potential for a stronger earthquake?
Magnitude 8+ Events: Large-scale events of this magnitude are rare but catastrophic. However, it should be noted that the Himalayas have a history of such earthquakes approximately every few centuries, with strain continuing to accumulate along the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT).
Seismic Gaps: Several “locked” segments along the Himalayan fault line, such as in the central and western regions, have not experienced a significant release of strain in centuries, increasing the likelihood of a future mega-earthquake.
Devastation in Northern India
Northern India is particularly vulnerable due to its proximity to the Himalayan seismic zone and the dense population of its cities. The extent of devastation depends on the earthquake’s magnitude, depth, and proximity to populated areas.
However, a potential bigger earthquake which as per repeat time could occur anytime posing serious risks to major urban centers such as
Delhi: The national capital lies in Seismic Zone IV, which is classified as a high-risk zone. A strong earthquake could severely damage infrastructure, disrupt services, and cause significant casualties due to its dense population and old, unreinforced buildings.
Dehradun: Located near the foothills of the Himalayas, Dehradun is highly vulnerable due to its proximity to active fault lines.
Chandigarh: Also in Seismic Zone IV, this city faces considerable risk of damage to its modern infrastructure.
Lucknow and Kanpur: Though further from the Himalayas, these cities could still experience significant tremors and structural damage due to soft alluvial soil amplification in the Indo-Gangetic Plain.
Varanasi and Patna: Historical cities with dense populations and older infrastructure, are located in Seismic Zone IV.
Therefore, it is vital for the government to address this possibility to reduce the potential devastation –
— Ensure buildings and infrastructure meet earthquake-resistant standards, particularly in high-risk zones like Delhi and the Himalayan foothills.
— Conduct regular earthquake drills and improve public awareness.
— Invest in seismic monitoring and early warning technologies to give residents critical seconds to respond.
— Develop robust plans for evacuation, medical aid, and supply chains in the aftermath of a disaster.
A stronger earthquake in the Himalayan region could have devastating consequences for northern India, especially in densely populated cities like Delhi. Preparedness and resilience-building are the only ways to mitigate the impact of such a natural disaster.
While the exact timing of an earthquake cannot be predicted, the evidence “repeat time” window strongly suggests that the Himalayan region remains at high risk. Urbanization, population growth, and infrastructure development in seismically active areas amplify the potential impact of such events.
