Mystery Deadly Virus ‘Could Be Disease X’ As Death Toll Soars In Congo. Why Protecting Our Forests And Banning Wildlife Trade Holds The Key To Curbing The Next Pandemic

Disease X

Showing early symptoms of hemorrhagic fever, the patient sits quietly on her bed, wrangling two toddlers desperate to flee the cell-like hospital room in Ingende, a remote town in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

They are waiting for the results of a test for Ebola.

The patient can only communicate with her relatives through a clear plastic observation window. Her identity is secret, to protect her from being ostracized by locals fearful of Ebola infection. Her children have also been tested but, for now, show no symptoms.

There is a vaccine and a treatment for Ebola, which have brought down the rate at which it kills.

But the question at the back of everyone’s mind is: What if this woman doesn’t have Ebola? What if, instead, she is patient zero of “Disease X,” the first known infection of a new pathogen that could sweep the world as fast as Covid-19, but one that has Ebola’s 50% to 90% fatality rate?

Growing Fears Over Mysterious Illness in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

A mysterious illness has emerged in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), raising alarm bells across the globe as public health experts fear it could be the next pandemic. Since late October, approximately 400 cases of an unidentified disease have been reported in the Panzi health zone of Kwango Province, primarily affecting children under the age of 5.

The symptoms of the illness include fever, cough, runny nose, headache, and body aches, with at least 71 deaths recorded by the World Health Organization (WHO) to date.

As researchers scramble to determine the cause of this outbreak, health officials are investigating a range of potential pathogens, including endemic diseases like malaria, respiratory infections such as pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, and measles.

The possibility that multiple diseases may be contributing to the fatalities is also being considered.

The situation has led some experts to raise concerns that this could be “Disease X”—a hypothetical, unknown pathogen capable of triggering a global health crisis similar to the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, while mysterious outbreaks often spark fears of new, dangerous pathogens, experts emphasize that these events are more commonly linked to endemic diseases aggravated by factors such as malnutrition, inadequate healthcare infrastructure, and low vaccination rates.

How Malnutrition Can Aggravate The Spread

The role of severe malnutrition in this outbreak is a critical factor, with experts noting that the disease appears to be more severe in malnourished individuals. In addition to widespread malnutrition, the region is struggling with rampant malaria, food insecurity, and limited access to both vaccines and diagnostic tools, all of which are compounding the crisis.

These challenges are further compounded by the difficulty in reaching the affected areas due to the region’s remote location and the ongoing rainy season, which has made travel even more difficult.

According to the WHO, the affected area is difficult to access, with travel from the capital city, Kinshasa, taking up to 48 hours by road. The lack of transportation, insufficient supplies, and a shortage of healthcare staff have hindered the delivery of aid and medical assistance, complicating efforts to contain the outbreak.

Almost all of the patients affected by the disease (96.5%) have reported experiencing fever, a common symptom in many infectious diseases.

WHO has noted that based on the clinical symptoms and the number of deaths, diseases such as acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles, and malaria are being considered as potential causes, with malnutrition acting as a contributing factor.

Tropical Forests And Zoonotic Diseases.

Humanity is facing an increasing threat from new and potentially fatal viruses emerging from Africa’s tropical rainforests, warns Professor Jean-Jacques Muyembe Tamfum, a key figure in the discovery of the Ebola virus in 1976.

As one of the leading scientists on the frontlines of pathogen research, Professor Muyembe Tamfum stressed the reality that the world is entering an era where new diseases will inevitably emerge.

This poses a significant threat to global health, and the responsibility for monitoring and combating these emerging viruses increasingly falls on African scientists, particularly in regions like the Congo.

Zoonotic diseases, which are diseases that jump from animals to humans, are a key concern.

Viruses such as yellow fever, influenza, rabies, brucellosis, and Lyme disease have all been transmitted from animals to humans, often via vectors like rodents or insects.

These diseases have caused epidemics and pandemics in the past, and experts warn that the number of such viruses is on the rise.
Since the identification of yellow fever as the first animal-to-human infection in 1901, scientists have discovered at least 200 additional viruses that can cause disease in humans.

Research by Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, suggests that new species of viruses are being discovered at a rate of three to four per year, with the majority originating from animals.

How Ecological Destruction By Humans Plays A Role

The rising number of emerging viruses is closely linked to ecological destruction and the wildlife trade.

As natural habitats shrink due to deforestation and human encroachment, animals like rats, bats, and insects—often smaller, more resilient species—are increasingly living in close proximity to human populations.

These animals are often suspected of carrying new diseases that can spill over into human communities. For example, past Ebola outbreaks have been linked to heavy human incursions into rainforests.

A 2017 study using satellite data revealed that 25 of the 27 Ebola outbreaks between 2001 and 2014 occurred in areas where deforestation had taken place about two years prior. The study suggested that forest loss played a significant role in these outbreaks, even when other factors like population density were considered.

In the first 14 years of the 21st century, an area larger than the size of Bangladesh was deforested in the Congo River basin rainforest.

The United Nations has warned that if current trends in deforestation and population growth continue, the country’s rainforest could be gone by the end of the century. As this happens, animals and the viruses they carry will increasingly collide with human populations, potentially triggering new health crises.

The World Coming Together

However, experts argue that this devastating trajectory is not inevitable.

A multidisciplinary group of scientists from the US, China, Kenya, and Brazil has calculated that a global investment of $30 billion per year could significantly reduce the risk of future pandemics.

This investment would focus on projects to protect rainforests, halt the wildlife trade, and curb harmful farming practices.

According to a study published in Science, spending $9.6 billion annually on global forest protection could lead to a 40% reduction in deforestation in areas at the highest risk of virus spillover. Such initiatives would involve incentivizing communities living in and around forests to protect the environment, as well as enforcing bans on widespread logging and the commercialization of the wildlife trade.

The Global Threat of Bushmeat Trade

In a groundbreaking study, scientists have pointed to the link between deforestation, the illegal wildlife trade, and the rising threat of zoonotic diseases. A similar program in Brazil, aimed at reducing deforestation, saw a 70% decline in deforestation between 2005 and 2012, demonstrating the potential of focused global investment.

Experts argue that investing $30 billion annually to protect rainforests, curb the wildlife trade, and halt unsustainable farming could quickly pay for itself, considering the astronomical costs of pandemics. For instance, the coronavirus pandemic is expected to cost the US an estimated $16 trillion over the next decade, according to Harvard economists David Cutler and Larry Summers.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates the global economic toll from COVID-19 will reach $28 trillion in lost output between 2020 and 2025. In light of these staggering figures, the argument for preventive action is compelling.

Professor Jean-Jacques Muyembe Tamfum, a key figure in the fight against emerging diseases, emphasizes the importance of early detection and preparedness. “If a pathogen emerged from Africa, it will take time to spread all over the world,” he explained. “But if this virus is detected early – like in my institution here – there will be an opportunity for Europe and the rest of the world to develop new strategies to fight these new pathogens.”

Early intervention, particularly in the regions where new viruses are most likely to emerge, could help contain future outbreaks before they become global catastrophes.

While the exact origins of diseases like Ebola remain unclear, scientists believe that zoonotic illnesses, such as Ebola and COVID-19, often make the leap to humans when wild animals are butchered for food.

In many parts of Africa, bushmeat – the meat of wild animals – is a traditional source of protein. However, it is now traded far beyond its point of origin, with bushmeat from the Congo River basin reaching global markets.

The UN estimates that as much as 5 million tons of bushmeat are harvested from the region each year, fueling a global black market.

From Africa To Global Trade

In the bustling markets of Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), bushmeat is sold openly.
One market trader offers smoked carcasses of colobus monkeys for $22, though he admits that he must cut off their heads and limbs to smuggle them out of the country, as exporting monkeys is illegal.

Colobus monkeys, once abundant in the region, have been hunted to extinction in some areas. Despite the trader’s efforts to skirt the law, the meat is often destined for markets in Europe, particularly Brussels, Paris, and London.

Adams Cassinga, CEO of Conserv Congo and a wildlife crime investigator, illustrates the scale of the bushmeat trade, estimating that between five and 15 tons of bushmeat are exported from Kinshasa each day.

While smoked animals like monkeys, pythons, and sitatunga – a type of water antelope – may seem unlikely to carry dangerous viruses due to the cooking process, scientists have warned that even cooked primate meat can still pose a risk.

The real danger, however, lies in the live animals sold in “wet” markets.

Wet Markets Trades

These markets, where live animals are kept in unsanitary conditions, present a significant threat.

Young crocodiles are often crammed together, their snouts wired shut and legs bound. Traders offer barrels of giant land snails, tortoises, and freshwater turtles.

In some cases, chimpanzees and other exotic animals are sold either for private collections or to be consumed as meat. The risk of viral transmission from these live animals is much higher, as they may carry pathogens that can easily jump to humans in such close proximity.

The connection between deforestation, wildlife trade, and emerging diseases is undeniable.

Disease X

The world stands on the precipice of an unseen danger, as a potential new virus—known as “Disease X”—could emerge from the wild animals of the Congo rainforest, carried into urban areas by the bushmeat trade.

While often associated with the poor, the consumption of bushmeat is primarily a privilege of the rich and powerful, who believe that eating certain exotic animals will grant them strength or status.

In recent decades, the demand for bushmeat has expanded, fueled by expatriates from Southeast Asia seeking delicacies like turtles, snakes, and primates.

Adams Cassinga, CEO of Conserv Congo and a wildlife crime investigator, spoke about this disturbing trend. “Bushmeat here, in urban areas, unlike the popular misconception, it is not for the poor, it is for the rich and privileged,” he said. This commercialization of bushmeat has created a new and dangerous vector for the spread of zoonotic diseases—those that jump from animals to humans.

Wet markets, where live animals are sold and butchered for meat, have long been linked to the emergence of viruses like H5N1 (avian flu) and SARS. The coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic is believed to have originated in such a market.

Scientists now warn that the bushmeat trade, particularly in places like Kinshasa, could serve as a breeding ground for the next global pandemic.

Protecting Forests

The situation is further aggravated by the devastation of the Congo’s tropical rainforest, the second largest in the world after the Amazon.

Deforestation, driven largely by small-scale agriculture, has been rampant, with 84% of forest clearance attributed to farming activities. This not only destroys the natural habitat of wildlife but also brings humans into closer contact with once-untouched ecosystems and their inhabitants.

The use of slash-and-burn farming techniques, in particular, forces animals like rats and insects to migrate toward human settlements, increasing the likelihood of disease transmission.

As Professor Jean-Jacques Muyembe Tamfum, who helped discover the Ebola virus, warns, “If you go in the forest, you will change the ecology; and insects and rats will leave this place and come to the villages… so this is the transmission of the virus, of the new pathogens.” The spillover of diseases like Ebola, SARS, and COVID-19 from animals to humans is no longer a matter of “if,” but “when.”

To prevent future pandemics, scientists emphasize the urgent need to protect the world’s remaining forests. Not only do these ecosystems support biodiversity, but they also act as a critical buffer against the spread of deadly pathogens. Efforts to curb deforestation and regulate the bushmeat trade are crucial to minimizing the risk of emerging diseases.

But forest protection alone is not enough. Experts call for a comprehensive, global response to emerging infectious diseases.

Thus, the concept of “Disease X” illustrates the potential for a novel pathogen to cause a pandemic. To prevent this, several measures must be taken –

• Bioterrorism Prevention: Establish international guidelines to prevent the use of viruses like Ebola or Lassa as biological agents, which could trigger an epidemic.

• Timely Academic Involvement: Ensure that scientific expertise is consulted quickly and without political interference, enabling a rapid response to potential outbreaks.

• Travel Restrictions: Implement immediate travel restrictions and airport screening to prevent the spread of new pathogens across borders.

• Collaborative Global Effort: Scientists, clinicians, and infectious disease experts must work together to investigate, control, and eliminate emerging diseases in a timely manner.

• Aggressive Contact Tracing: Widespread testing and contact tracing can help contain outbreaks before they escalate into global pandemics.

• Medical Countermeasures: Invest in the development of diagnostics, vaccines, and clinical trials to prepare for future pandemics.

• Virus Lab Surveillance: Strengthen oversight of virus research laboratories to prevent accidental leaks of dangerous pathogens.

One Health

One approach gaining traction is the “One Health” framework, which bridges gaps between human, animal, and environmental health.

This holistic approach emphasizes the need to address the underlying drivers of disease spread, such as deforestation, wildlife trade, and poor surveillance systems by focusing on priority risk areas and pathogens, One Health provides a comprehensive strategy for preventing future outbreaks.

The Last Bit

The COVID-19 pandemic was a wake-up call, but it will not be the last global health crisis we face.

The time to prepare for the next outbreak is now.

Protecting our forests, regulating the bushmeat trade, and investing in global health infrastructure are critical steps in reducing the risk of “Disease X” and safeguarding humanity against future pandemics.

The cost of inaction is too high, and the consequences too dire.