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The ‘Hidden’ Story Of Europe’s Undersea Cables. Natural Causes Or Sabotage? Estonian Minister Proposes Baltic Sea Shipping Tax To Fund Undersea Cable Protection
Europe’s undersea cables infrastructure is under attack—at least that’s what many are starting to believe. In the latest of a series of incidents, an undersea cable carrying data between Sweden and Latvia was damaged on Sunday, an event Latvia has attributed to an external force. While no official blame has been assigned, suspicions are growing that these disruptions are no accident.
A Pattern of Disruptions
This isn’t an isolated event. Since late 2022, multiple incidents have affected the critical infrastructure crisscrossing the Baltic Sea, including gas pipelines, power cables, and data cables. The most high-profile of these was the Nord Stream explosions in September 2022, which took out key pipelines supplying Russian gas to Europe. Swedish investigators confirmed it was an act of sabotage, but the question of ‘whodunit’ remains open. Germany later issued an international arrest warrant for a Ukrainian suspect, but many still believe Moscow’s hand could be at play.
Fast forward to 2023, and the disruptions continued. In October, the Balticconnector natural gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia mysteriously began leaking. Then, in November, two undersea internet cables—one linking Sweden and Lithuania, the other Finland and Germany—were cut, leading to immediate suspicions of deliberate sabotage. And in December, a power cable between Finland and Estonia failed, with a Russian oil tanker later being detained on suspicion of dragging its anchor over the cable.
So who’s behind these disruptions?
European officials have been increasingly vocal in pointing fingers at Russia, suggesting these incidents are part of a broader campaign to intimidate, destabilize, and create uncertainty.
Moscow, unsurprisingly, has denied any involvement. The Russian embassy in London dismissed the allegations, claiming NATO was using the so-called ‘Russian threat’ as a pretext to expand its presence in the Baltic. Nevertheless, NATO has responded by deploying sub-sea drones and launching a new mission aimed at strengthening the security of undersea infrastructure.
A Wake-Up Call for Europe
Regardless of whether these incidents are acts of sabotage or unfortunate accidents, they have exposed a major vulnerability in Europe’s security framework. Georg Zachmann, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, describes the situation as “very worrying,” emphasizing that Europe is heavily dependent on these cables and pipelines for energy and communications.
Assigning blame for these incidents isn’t as straightforward as it seems, and it’s definitely a delicate matter.
In September, two US officials noted that the United States had noticed an uptick in Russian military activity near key undersea cables. But when it comes to solid proof implicating Moscow, the evidence is elusive. In fact, US officials familiar with an initial investigation into the November incident in the Baltic stated there were “no indications of nefarious activity” involving the two severed internet cables.
Some have pointed to the situation wrapped in what some might call “plausible deniability”—or, in some cases, “implausible deniability” pointing out that the Baltic is a “very congested, very crowded waterway,” which makes it tough to spot or prove anything suspicious. Still, a lot of fingers are pointing at Russia for several of these incidents.
Some experts are zeroing in on Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”—a collection of aging tankers with murky ownership, transporting Russian oil to bypass Western sanctions.
Lithuania’s defense minister, Dovilė Šakalienė, told last week that this shadow fleet is responsible for “cutting our power cables… cutting our data cables… cutting our pipelines,” and she suspects the damage is deliberate.
The Damage
According to Carnegie Endowment’s Besch, Europe’s cable infrastructure has a lot of “redundancy,” meaning if one cable goes down, the data it carries can usually be rerouted through another. However, some islands close to Scotland and Norway are more exposed, with only one or two cables. If those get cut, it’s a major problem.
Repairing undersea networks can be expensive and time-consuming, sometimes taking months. Even minor outages can cause major disruptions—think online shopping delays, home delivery issues, and the inability to stream your favorite shows or movies.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said earlier this month that safeguarding our infrastructure is of utmost importance. This is crucial not just for energy supplies—whether from power cables or pipelines—but also for internet traffic, which, is carried via undersea cables for over 95% of global data.
Could Baltic Sea Shipping Tax Fund Undersea Cable Protection?
Estonia’s defense minister has proposed that shipping companies may need to pay a fee to use the Baltic Sea, one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, in order to help cover the high costs of protecting undersea cables. This suggestion comes after a string of incidents where ships have damaged power and communications cables, possibly due to sabotage.
NATO announced last week that it would deploy frigates, patrol aircraft, and drones in the Baltic Sea to safeguard these critical cables. Following these incidents, Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur mentioned that countries are exploring other options to protect the cables, such as installing sensors to detect anchors dragged across the sea floor or even building casings or walls around the cables.
However, these protective measures won’t come cheap, and it remains unclear whether countries or cable operators will bear the costs. In the end, consumers might feel the impact through higher taxes or utility bills.
Pevkur also floated the idea of a tax on ships passing through the Baltic Sea. He compared it to the fees travelers pay when flying and suggested that, similarly, shipping companies might face a fee when crossing the Danish Straits, which would essentially act as an insurance fee to cover potential cable damage.
While Pevkur emphasized that various options are being considered, he noted that countries would need to reach a common solution.
According to the UK-based International Cable Protection Committee, around 150 undersea cables are damaged globally each year. The Baltic Sea, with its heavy traffic of up to 4,000 ships daily, is particularly vulnerable. The region’s telecom cables, power lines, and gas pipelines are at risk due to this intense activity.
In one of the latest incidents, Swedish authorities seized a Maltese-flagged ship on Monday in connection with damage to a cable running between Latvia and Sweden. This was just one of four similar incidents in over a year, with others affecting power and telecom lines between Estonia and Finland.
Pevkur suggested that these incidents could be the work of ships from Russia’s “shadow fleet,” a collection of vessels often operating under false flags. Moscow, however, has denied any involvement, accusing Western countries of making “evidence-free” claims.
The Estonian government has even suggested introducing a Baltic Sea shipping tax to fund enhanced protection for undersea infrastructure. While such a move would be controversial, it indicates just how seriously some European nations are taking the threat.
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