Politics
Taiwan Faces Grim Reality With Trump Returning. Parliament Voted Freeze Billions Of Dollars In Defense Spending. Does China Now Have An Upper Hand?
Taiwan’s parliament voted to freeze billions in defense spending just as Donald Trump made his icy return to Washington. The timing couldn’t be worse, especially since Trump has already hinted that Taiwan needs to shell out “more” for U.S. protection.
The U.S. has long been Taiwan’s main ally and top arms supplier. For China, however, Taiwan remains the one that got away—a semiconductor giant and democratically ruled island Beijing claims as its own, despite never having governed it. And they’ve made no secret of their willingness to take it by force if necessary.
This opposition-led vote to block defense funding puts Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te in a tough spot. His party doesn’t hold a majority in Taiwan’s rowdy parliament, making it harder to push through critical legislation. This not only jeopardizes U.S. support but could also irritate Trump, who’s known for his transactional, “what’s in it for me” approach to alliances.
President Lai didn’t mince words. In a Facebook post, he warned that cutting defense budgets sends the wrong message to both allies and adversaries. “If we don’t consistently improve Taiwan’s defense reforms and capabilities, the international community will doubt our determination to defend ourselves,” Lai said.
The budget freeze impacts some big-ticket items, including Taiwan’s indigenous submarine and drone programs—both key to its defense strategy. Premier Cho Jung-tai slammed the move as “suicidal,” while Defense Minister Wellington Koo called it “the wrong signal to the United States.”
Trump 2.0: Taiwan’s Delicate Balancing Act
Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office, complete with his “America First” mantra, has stirred fresh concerns in Taiwan about whether Washington will stand firm in the face of a potential Chinese invasion.
For decades, the U.S. has been Taiwan’s unofficial yet crucial security partner, thanks to the Taiwan Relations Act, which obligates Washington to provide the island with defensive capabilities. But here’s the kicker: the U.S. has never clearly said how it would respond to an actual invasion—a strategy known as “strategic ambiguity.”
Interestingly, just days before Trump took office, Taiwan’s defense ministry confirmed a rare two-year agreement for U.S. military training on the island—an unusual move for a typically tight-lipped institution. While such cooperation isn’t new, the timing of this revelation seems calculated to reassure both domestic and international audiences.
But Trump has been less Taiwan-friendly compared to Joe Biden. He’s accused the island of stealing “almost 100%” of America’s semiconductor industry and has openly questioned the feasibility of defending Taiwan, citing its geographic distance. He’s also pushed for Taiwan to quadruple its defense spending to 10% of GDP—a demand analysts have dismissed as unrealistic, especially with a $20 billion backlog in undelivered U.S. military equipment.
Taiwan’s Military Readiness. Outgunned but Determined
Taiwan’s military is armed to the teeth with U.S. weaponry, but let’s face it—it’s no match for Beijing’s sheer firepower. With the world’s largest standing army and a defense budget that’s 11 times bigger than Taiwan’s, China holds a massive advantage.
Adding to the challenge, Taiwan’s military is still playing catch-up in adopting asymmetric warfare tactics—think stealthy drones and portable missiles. While Taipei has ramped up military reforms, experts, including those from the Council on Foreign Relations, argue there’s still a long way to go.
But it’s not just about weapons and strategy. Budget woes are creeping into other critical areas. Earlier this week, undersea cables connecting Taiwan to the remote Matsu islands were severed due to “natural deterioration,” cutting off internet access to these outposts just miles from China’s coast. This brings a broader vulnerability – infrastructure that Beijing could exploit in a conflict.
To make matters worse, Taiwan’s recent budget cuts have slashed funds for health care, foreign affairs, and even infrastructure repairs. Critics warn this penny-pinching could leave the island exposed at a time when every vulnerability matters.
Not everyone agrees on where to spend. Alexander Huang of the opposition Kuomintang party defended the freeze on defense spending, particularly on Taiwan’s indigenous submarine program. “We’re not against developing our own weapons, but let’s make sure the submarines actually work before pouring more money into them,” he argued.
Meanwhile, Wei-Ting Yen from Academia Sinica wasn’t so forgiving. He called the domestic squabbles over defense spending “extra bad,” emphasizing that Taiwan needs to send a clear signal to the Trump administration—and the world—that it’s serious about its defense. “With China’s increasing aggression, boosting our self-defense budget should be our top priority,” he stressed.
Some, see Taiwan’s semiconductor industry as its ultimate shield noting that the world needs Taiwan’s chips hence China will not risk a war.
Does China Now Have an Upper Hand Over Taiwan?
The U.S. has long been Taiwan’s primary ally and military supporter, but recent developments suggest the relationship could be entering a new phase. While Taiwan’s defense spending is under increasing pressure domestically, China’s military presence in the Taiwan Strait has only escalated. U.S. involvement remains pivotal, yet questions linger about Washington’s future commitment, particularly with the return of Donald Trump to the political stage.
As U.S. support for Taiwan’s defense is vital in the face of China’s increasing aggression, the future of that support may depend on Taiwan’s willingness to meet certain demands set by Trump.
In the past few years, China has ramped up its military presence near Taiwan. Regular military drills are now a fixture of the region’s geopolitical landscape. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been holding exercises that simulate encirclements of Taiwan, amphibious landings, and missile strikes, all designed to test its ability to blockade and invade the island. These drills send a clear message to Taiwan and its allies: Beijing is prepared to take action if necessary.
But it’s not just the frequent drills that have the world concerned. There is an increasing buzz in diplomatic circles that China may be planning an attack on Taiwan by 2027. U.S. intelligence reports suggest that China has been preparing its military for a potential invasion, with 2027 seen as a key target date. The growing speculation stems from several factors –
PLA Modernization: The Chinese military has undergone a rapid modernization process, improving its capabilities in missile technology, cyber warfare, and naval power.
Political Calculations: 2027 also marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PLA, a symbolic milestone that could spur Beijing to act.
Strategic Ambiguity: The U.S. has long maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” leaving Taiwan unsure of the extent to which the U.S. would intervene in the event of a Chinese invasion. This vagueness could embolden Beijing, which may believe that the U.S. will not take drastic action to defend Taiwan.
Taiwan’s military readiness is under increasing scrutiny. While the island is heavily armed with U.S. weaponry, its military capabilities are still outmatched by China’s overwhelming strength. Taiwan has been focusing on asymmetric warfare—investing in smaller, harder-to-detect weapons like drones and portable missiles—but experts warn that more needs to be done. The recent freeze on Taiwan’s defense spending by opposition lawmakers only adds to concerns that the island may not be fully prepared for the growing threat from Beijing.
On top of military concerns, Taiwan’s political is becoming increasingly fractured.
The Last Bit
The U.S. has repeatedly affirmed its commitment to Taiwan’s security, but the future of that commitment is uncertain. The Biden administration has continued to support Taiwan through arms sales and diplomatic support, but there is growing concern about how a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait would play out, especially with China’s increasing military capabilities.
U.S. support will be crucial, but there are doubts about how far Washington is willing to go, especially if Taiwan does not take the necessary steps to strengthen its own defenses. As China’s military continues to grow, the U.S. may be forced to reassess its approach, particularly if Taiwan’s internal political issues continue to undermine its ability to effectively defend itself.