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Syrian Rebels Ultimatum To Putin, ‘You Dog We Will Step On You’. What’s Happening In Syria And What Is Russia’s Role?
A surprise offensive by rebel forces against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has sparked fresh fighting in Syria’s long-running civil war, which had recently seen periods of relative stagnation. In a swift series of attacks, rebels seized almost all of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, marking a significant turn in the conflict.
Despite the rebels’ rapid advances, Assad issued a defiant speech on Saturday, pledging to protect Syria’s “stability and territorial integrity.”
The ongoing war began in 2011 when Assad’s government violently suppressed pro-democracy protests. Over a decade later, the conflict has resulted in nearly half a million deaths, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a U.K.-based monitoring group. Millions of Syrians have been displaced, while much of the country’s infrastructure remains in ruins. Internationally, various foreign powers have supported either Assad’s regime or different rebel factions.
Russia and Syria Intensify Airstrikes on Rebel Territory
On Monday, it was reported that at least 25 people were killed in northwestern Syria after airstrikes by Syrian and Russian forces targeted rebel-held regions. Russian and Syrian jets bombed the city of Idlib in the north, which remains under rebel control. This attack came as President Assad vowed to crush the insurgents who had recently overtaken Aleppo.
In the aftermath of these strikes, military sources confirmed that Assad’s forces had recaptured several towns previously taken by rebels. The White Helmets, a rescue service run by the opposition, reported that one of the airstrikes hit a residential area in Idlib, a city of approximately four million people, most of whom live in makeshift shelters near the Turkish border. As of Monday, the death toll from airstrikes since November 27 had risen to 56, including 20 children.
Geopolitical Dynamics and the Struggle for Aleppo
Aleppo had remained under government control since 2016, following a decisive victory for Assad’s forces, aided by Russian airstrikes, which led to the devastation of rebel-held eastern Aleppo. The recent rebel success is partially attributed to a lack of manpower within the Syrian military, which caused a swift retreat from several towns.
In response to the developments, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who visited Damascus on Sunday, acknowledged that the situation in Syria remained difficult but expressed confidence that Assad’s government would ultimately prevail.
Key Insights into the Ongoing Syrian Conflict
Why Has Syria’s Civil War Re-erupted Now?
Although a cease-fire brokered by Turkey, which supports the opposition, and Russia, which backs President Bashar al-Assad, has held since 2020, fighting has flared up again. The new rebel offensive began last week as anti-Assad factions moved to capture more territory held by the government. Rebels argue that their actions were in response to an increase in attacks by Assad’s forces.
However, analysts suggest that the resurgence of fighting is primarily a result of shifting geopolitical dynamics outside Syria’s borders. Hezbollah, a group backed by Iran and a key ally of Assad, has been embroiled in a significant conflict with Israel in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has had wide-reaching implications for the region.
“Hezbollah has been weakened by its recent conflict with Israel. Russia is deeply involved in Ukraine and facing mounting economic pressures. Iran is overstretched, with its communications and regional allies under direct attack,” said Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a consultancy specializing in Middle East affairs. “In this context, Turkey and its allies are seizing the opportunity to advance their interests.”
Who Is Fighting and Why?
The latest rebel offensive is being led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist militant group with historical ties to both al-Qaida and ISIS, although it is now largely independent. HTS aims to overthrow Assad’s regime, expel Iranian forces from the region, and advance its own extremist ideology.
Assad’s primary military supporters are Russia and Iran. Russia entered the conflict in 2015 to prop up Assad’s faltering government, seeking to project power on the global stage and counter U.S. influence, which was bolstering various anti-Assad groups, including Kurdish forces battling ISIS in both Syria and Iraq.
Iran, a long-time backer of Assad, continues to provide funding and fighters, with the aim of using Syria as a strategic platform to challenge Israel, its main regional rival.
Turkey’s Role and Regional Dynamics
Turkey, which borders Syria to the north, has supported anti-Assad groups for years, driven by its desire to contain Kurdish separatist movements that threaten its own national security. Turkey has faced ongoing Kurdish insurgency issues, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under increasing pressure domestically to deport Syrian refugees who have flooded into Turkey since the conflict began.
What Does the Fighting Mean, and What Happens Now?
Assad’s regime remains deeply entrenched, with his government controlling roughly 70% of Syria’s territory as of last week, according to the United States Institute of Peace. However, the recent escalation in fighting, after a largely dormant cease-fire, raises the potential for a new violent front in the Middle East. This comes amid fragile cease-fires in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel, and the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Hamas and Israel, both backed by Iran.
The survival and future of Assad’s government will likely hinge on the continued support from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—key allies that have kept him in power.
Ayman Abdel Nour, a former associate of Assad from their college days in Damascus and now the editor-in-chief of All4Syria, an independent news outlet, noted that Assad has recently resisted Russian efforts to arrange a meeting with Turkey’s President Erdogan.
Such a meeting, he suggests, would aim to find a long-term solution to the ongoing civil war, particularly concerning the role of non-state actors like Hezbollah, while U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has signaled plans to withdraw the remaining 900 U.S. troops in Syria, who are focused on countering Iran’s influence.
“The rapid gains by rebel forces, combined with the maneuvering of external powers with conflicting interests, leave Syria’s future precariously uncertain,” said Mohammed Albasha.
Russia’s Role in the Syrian Conflict
Russia has played a pivotal role in the Syrian conflict, serving as a crucial ally to President Bashar al-Assad and significantly shaping the trajectory of the war. Since its military intervention in 2015, Russia has provided critical support to Assad’s regime, helping to prevent its collapse and maintain control over key territories.
Military Support
Russia’s primary contribution has been military. Russian airstrikes and military advisers have bolstered Assad’s forces, turning the tide in several key battles. Russian jets have launched airstrikes against rebel-held areas, including Aleppo and Idlib, often targeting civilian infrastructure and rebel positions. This support has been crucial in regaining lost ground and suppressing opposition forces.
Russia also provides arms, advanced military technology, and logistical support to Assad’s military, allowing the regime to continue fighting despite international isolation and economic sanctions. Russian ground forces, although not as prominent as their air forces, have also been involved in combat operations in Syria, working alongside Syrian troops.
Geopolitical Strategy
Russia’s involvement in Syria is not purely based on supporting Assad’s survival; it also serves broader geopolitical interests. By backing Assad, Russia seeks to maintain its influence in the Middle East, a region of strategic importance. Syria provides Russia with a key military foothold in the Mediterranean, with its naval base in Tartus and airbase in Latakia, which enhance Russia’s ability to project power across the region.
Russia’s intervention also acts as a counterbalance to U.S. influence in the region. By supporting Assad, Russia challenges Western-backed rebel groups and seeks to prevent the spread of U.S. influence in Syria and neighboring countries, such as Iraq and Turkey. This has been part of a broader strategy to undermine U.S. hegemony and solidify Russia’s role as a global power broker.
Diplomatic Efforts
On the diplomatic front, Russia has positioned itself as a key mediator in the Syrian conflict, hosting peace talks in Astana (now Nur-Sultan) and participating in the UN-backed Geneva process. While Russia’s role as a mediator is often criticized due to its direct military involvement, it has played a key role in negotiating ceasefires and de-escalation zones with the opposition and Turkey.
Influence Over Assad
Russia’s influence over Assad has grown significantly, though not without tension. While Assad relies heavily on Russian military support, he has sometimes resisted efforts by Moscow to push for political compromises. For example, Russia has attempted to broker talks between Assad and Turkey’s President Erdogan, seeking a longer-term solution to the war, but Assad has been hesitant, preferring to maintain his sovereignty and avoid any concessions to the opposition.
Economic Support
Beyond military and diplomatic assistance, Russia has also provided economic support to Assad’s government. This includes financing reconstruction efforts in areas under government control, investments in Syria’s oil and gas sectors, and trade deals to help stabilize the Syrian economy, which has been devastated by the war.
Russia’s role in Syria is multifaceted, involving direct military intervention, strategic geopolitical interests, and diplomatic efforts to maintain Assad in power and assert Russian influence in the region. Russia has become a key player in shaping Syria’s future, and its involvement will likely continue to be a decisive factor in the conflict’s resolution.