No End In Sight. Russia In No Mood To Accept Trump Transition Team’s Proposals. What’s Next for Russia’s War On Ukraine In 2025?

Looks like there’s still no truce on the horizon between Russia and Ukraine. Russia isn’t warming up to the ideas being floated by Donald Trump transition team’s to end the war.

On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made it crystal clear that Moscow isn’t buying into the peace plan reportedly being pitched by Trump’s team. The sticking point? The proposal leaves the door open for Ukraine to eventually join NATO—a big no-no for Russia.

Speaking at a news conference, Lavrov didn’t mince words –

“Based on what we’ve seen in leaks and Trump’s Time magazine interview on December 12, the plan seems to be about freezing hostilities along the current lines and shifting the responsibility for handling Russia to the Europeans. Frankly, we’re not thrilled,” he said.

Lavrov also criticized another part of the plan – delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years while bringing in British and European peacekeepers. “We are not happy with that either,” he added.

Trump’s victory in the November elections, his critiques of U.S. support for Ukraine, and his bold claim that he could end the war in a day have left NATO allies uneasy. They’re worried about what compromises he might expect from Ukraine.

Now, with Russia flat-out rejecting a key piece of Trump’s reported proposal, analysts are saying it’s a reality check for anyone thinking Moscow might be open to peace on Western terms.

So, what exactly is Trump’s plan for Ukraine, and why is Russia pushing back?

Trump hasn’t spilled all the details, keeping his cards close to his chest. “I can’t give you those plans because if I give you those plans, I’m not going to be able to use them. They’ll be unsuccessful. Part of it’s surprise,” he said during a podcast interview with Lex Fridman in September.

On the campaign trail, Trump made headlines with his claim that he could end the war in 24 hours. But in a December 12 interview with Time magazine, he admitted, “The Middle East is an easier problem to handle than what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine.”

Still, Trump and his team have floated some ideas, and while details are sparse, we’re starting to get a sense of the direction they’re aiming for. Here’s what’s surfaced so far:

• Delay NATO Membership: According to a November 6 report, Trump’s plan includes postponing Ukraine’s NATO membership by 20 years. This comes from three sources close to Trump.

• A Demilitarized Zone: Trump’s Vice President, JD Vance, shared more details in a September interview on The Shawn Ryan Show. Vance said the current line dividing Russia and Ukraine would become a “demilitarized zone,” heavily fortified to prevent future Russian invasions.

• Who’s Policing It?: The demilitarized zone would stretch roughly 1,290 kilometers (800 miles), according to the WSJ. However, it’s still unclear who would enforce it. One unnamed Trump team member told the WSJ, “The barrel of the gun is going to be European.”

• Territory Concessions: Vance also hinted that Ukraine might need to give up some occupied territories to Russia, including parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Since 2014, Russia has seized about 20% of Ukraine’s land.

• Special Envoy Appointment: On November 27, Trump appointed retired General Keith Kellogg as his special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine war. Back in April, Kellogg co-authored a strategy paper suggesting that the U.S. should keep arming Ukraine but only if Kyiv agreed to peace talks with Moscow.

• NATO and Sanctions: Kellogg’s paper also proposed putting Ukraine’s NATO membership on hold and offering Russia some sanctions relief as a carrot to join peace negotiations.

• Trump’s Criticism of Ukraine: In his Time magazine interview, Trump expressed frustration with Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike inside Russian territory. “I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia. Why are we doing that?” he said, warning that it could escalate the conflict.

The missile strikes Trump referred to happened in late November when Ukraine used weapons from the U.S. and U.K. to hit targets in Russia. This came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy successfully lobbied for permission to use these weapons offensively.

With Trump’s proposals stirring debates and raising eyebrows, it’s clear that any path to peace is going to be anything but straightforward.

What’s Russia Saying About Trump’s Ukraine Peace Ideas?

Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t on board with the idea of postponing Ukraine’s NATO membership—and he didn’t hold back when asked about it during his annual press interaction on December 26.

Putin brushed off the suggestion, saying it wouldn’t make much difference to Moscow. “I don’t know the specifics of Trump’s plan,” he said, but added that President Joe Biden floated something similar back in 2021—a 10- to 15-year delay in Ukraine joining NATO. “In terms of historical distances and timeframes, this is a moment. What difference does it make to us—today, tomorrow, or in 10 years?” he said, according to a Kremlin transcript.

On Sunday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov chimed in, doubling down on Putin’s rejection of parts of Trump’s reported plan. Speaking to TASS, Lavrov said:

“We are certainly not satisfied with the proposals made by representatives of the president-elect’s team to postpone Ukraine’s membership in NATO for 20 years and to deploy a peacekeeping contingent of ‘UK and European forces’ in Ukraine.”

Lavrov also mentioned that Russia hasn’t received any official “signals” from the U.S. regarding a peace deal for Ukraine. For now, he said, the outgoing Biden administration is the only one authorized to engage with Moscow until Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

That said, Russia isn’t completely closing the door on peace talks. On Thursday, Putin said Moscow is open to discussions with Ukraine, even suggesting Slovakia as a potential host. This came after Putin met Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico in the Kremlin. Fico, for his part, has been vocal about his doubts regarding the European Union’s military support for Ukraine.

While the back-and-forth continues, it’s clear that any progress toward peace is going to require more than just delayed timelines and vague proposals. For now, the ball seems to be in Washington’s court.

What’s Russia’s Game Plan?

“Putin’s bluffing—he wants a deal,” says Timothy Ash, an expert on Russia and Eurasia at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.

According to Ash, Putin will play tough in the lead-up to negotiations, rejecting proposals left and right. But deep down, he needs a deal. “He can’t sustain a long war with these massive casualties.”  If Trump offers a deal where Russia gets to keep the Ukrainian territory it currently holds—a scenario hinted at by Trump’s Vice President JD Vance—Moscow would likely take it.

“Trump’s in a strong position, and Putin’s in a weak one,” Ash added. “The U.S. can sustain this war—it benefits from huge defense sales without losing any troops. Let’s hope Trump realizes this.”

How’s Ukraine Responding?

Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on December 7. After their trilateral meeting, Trump told the New York Post that Zelenskyy wants a ceasefire. “He wants to make peace. We didn’t talk about the details,” Trump said.

Ukraine, however, has consistently stated that any peace deal must reverse Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which Russia claimed back in 2014.

But Zelenskyy recently signaled a shift in his stance. In a November 29 interview with Sky News, he said, “If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control. We need to do it fast. And then, on the [occupied] territory of Ukraine, Ukraine can get them back in a diplomatic way.”

This is a big compromise by Zelenskyy.

While NATO has promised Ukraine an “irreversible” path to membership, there’s hesitation about admitting Ukraine while it’s still at war. After all, NATO’s mutual defense clause means that if Ukraine joins, all NATO members would essentially be at war with Russia.

With Russia unwilling to accept a 20-year delay in Ukraine’s NATO membership and Zelenskyy’s peace plan centered on joining NATO, it’s unclear how negotiations could move forward.

Still, Ash believes Zelenskyy might compromise on NATO membership—but not on Ukraine’s security. “Ukraine needs guarantees that Putin can’t just invade again,” he said. “That could mean bilateral security guarantees from the West or firm commitments to provide Ukraine with all the tools it needs to defend itself—similar to what Israel or South Korea have.”

Meanwhile, Another Front Opens

While Putin and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico shared warm moments in Moscow last week, Zelenskyy wasn’t thrilled. On Saturday, he accused Fico of opening a “second energy front” against Kyiv, claiming it was done under Moscow’s orders.

Russia’s gas supplies transit through Ukraine to Slovakia, Moldova, and Hungary under a deal that’s set to expire at the end of this year. With energy dynamics in the mix, the road to peace seems even more tangled.

What’s Next for Russia’s War on Ukraine in 2025?

After more than 1,000 days of relentless conflict, the cracks are starting to show in Ukraine’s defenses. The country is struggling with dwindling manpower as Russia ramps up its offensive, seizing more territory this year than at any time since 2022. Adding to the strain, Moscow is deploying cheap yet devastating glide bombs—Soviet-era ammunition retrofitted with wings and GPS—to terrorize Ukrainians.

Colonel Maksym Balagura of Ukraine’s State Border Guard didn’t mince words. “At the moment, they’re the biggest threat,” he said of the glide bombs. “They’re sapping the motivation of our soldiers to win.”

Ukraine fought back in August with a bold incursion into Russian territory—the largest since World War II. But by October, the mood in Kyiv had turned grim. Many Ukrainians feared the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, worried he might cut off the flow of weapons and pressure Ukraine into surrendering territory.

Many sharing their anxieties. When asked if they were concerned about Trump halting weapons supplies, responded without hesitation: “Yes. For us, it’s a matter of survival.”

As the U.S. presidential election loomed, President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use American-supplied ATACMs—missiles capable of striking targets nearly 200 miles away. Analysts speculated this was a move to help Ukraine maximize its gains before a potential shift in U.S. policy under a Trump administration.

Without consistent U.S. support, Ukraine’s front line could crumble, handing Russian President Vladimir Putin a long-awaited victory. Throughout this grinding war of attrition, Putin has been biding his time, waiting for the West’s unity and resolve to falter.

As 2025 approaches, what everyone is asking – can Ukraine hold the line, or will the geopolitical tides shift in Russia’s favor?