Kazakhstan Plane Crash. Was It An Accident Or Sabotage? What Really Happened In This Terrifying Incident? Are Civilians Being Openly Targeted Now?

Kazakhstan Plane Crash

An Azerbaijani airliner tragically crashed near the Kazakhstani city of Aktau on Wednesday, leaving 38 confirmed dead, according to Kazakhstan’s Emergency Ministry. The crash involved an Azerbaijan Airlines plane with 67 people on board, sparking a flurry of questions and conspiracy theories about what truly caused this disaster.

“The situation is not very good, 38 dead,” Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev told Russia’s Interfax news agency. The crash occurred during an emergency landing attempt in Aktau. Emergency workers at the scene reported that both pilots, based on preliminary assessments, were among those killed. Azerbaijan Airlines, the country’s flag carrier, confirmed the Embraer 190 aircraft had 62 passengers and five crew members on board.

Kazakhstan’s Emergency Ministry initially stated that 25 people survived the crash, later revising the number to 28 as search and rescue operations continued. Among the passengers, 37 were from Azerbaijan, six from Kazakhstan, three from Kyrgyzstan, and 16 from Russia. The plane was en route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia, when disaster struck.

What Really Happened?

Several theories are circulating about what might have caused the crash. Let’s examine these possibilities to understand this tragic incident better.

Theory One: Russia Jammed the GPS Device

Flight tracking data from Flightradar24.com showed the aircraft making erratic movements near Aktau, including a figure-eight pattern. Its altitude fluctuated significantly in the final moments before impact. Flightradar24 also reported “strong GPS jamming,” which caused the aircraft to transmit incorrect ADS-B data—information that enables flight tracking websites to monitor planes.

What is a figure-eight pattern? 

A “figure 8 pattern” in aviation, also known as “eights on pylons,” is a training maneuver where an aircraft traces a figure-eight path around two ground-based reference points, or “pylons.” This exercise hones a pilot’s ability to maintain precise control while visually referencing the ground and adjusting altitude. Essentially, the aircraft appears to pivot around these pylons, showcasing the pilot’s skill in synchronization and spatial awareness.

The maneuver relies on visual cues from the ground, requiring the pilot to maintain an accurate position relative to the pylons.

Pilots must determine and maintain a “pivotal altitude,” where the pylon appears stationary from the cockpit, even during turns. Achieving this balance is critical for executing the maneuver successfully.

Practiced during advanced flight training, “eights on pylons” demand exceptional control, focus, and coordination as the pilot adjusts altitude while keeping the visual reference intact.

Suspiciously, there is no flight data over Russian airspace in this region, likely due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The Caspian Sea is a critical area for Russian strategic bomber launches, and experts speculate that Russia may have jammed GPS signals in the northern Caspian, which could have disrupted the plane’s navigation systems.

This theory gains traction given Russia’s history of GPS interference in the region. However, no country or organization has officially claimed sabotage. Intriguingly, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered assistance to Kazakhstan following the crash, adding another layer of complexity to the narrative.

Theory Two: Bird Strike or Bullet Hits

Initial investigations suggest that external breaches on the plane’s fuselage may have been caused by a bird strike. According to Azerbaijan Airlines, the aircraft’s commander opted to divert to Aktau after encountering an emergency mid-flight. While bird strikes are a known hazard in aviation, could this explanation be a convenient cover for a deeper, more sinister cause?

Since, as per new footage shows what appear to be bullet holes embedded in the side of the aircraft.

Theory Three: Accidental Missile Strike

Another theory gaining attention involves a potential accidental missile strike. An international news outlet, AnewZ, cited a Russian military blogger who speculated that the plane’s damage could indicate it was hit by an air-defense missile system. This theory is particularly alarming given Grozny’s heightened security measures. As Chechnya’s leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, plays a pivotal role in the Kremlin’s war efforts, Grozny remains a potential target for Ukrainian drones.

If this theory holds, the incident draws uncomfortable parallels to the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 by Russian-backed forces in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Both cases involve surface-to-air missile systems and civilian casualties.

The Unanswered Questions

While investigations continue, the crash has raised troubling questions about civilian safety in increasingly militarized airspaces. Was this tragedy a result of navigational interference, a technical failure, or an accidental military strike? Or is there a more covert operation at play?

The lack of definitive answers fuels speculation that civilians might be collateral damage in larger geopolitical conflicts.

As the world watches, the victims of the devastating Kazakhstan Plane Crash crash deserve justice—and the truth, no matter how uncomfortable it may be