Opinion
Conflict In Manipur Takes A New Turn. Why Is Modi Still Silent And Will Normalcy Return To Manipur Anytime Soon?
Nineteen months have passed since violent clashes erupted between the majority Meitei community and the Kuki-Zo tribes in Manipur, and the situation shows no signs of abating. Instead, it has spiraled into a dangerous quagmire.
Violence in Kangpokpi
The border state of Manipur witnessed fresh violence recently when the Superintendent of Police (SP) office in Kangpokpi district was attacked by a mob. The incident left SP Manoj Prabhakar injured, along with several others.
The mob aleged inaction by the SP in “removing” central armed forces like the BSF and CRPF from Saibol village, as demanded by Kuki groups.
Videos from Kangpokpi showed armed individuals in camouflage clothing, carrying sophisticated weapons, and the aftermath of the mob’s attack included damaged vehicles and injuries. The police retaliated with force, dispersing the mob, but the scars of this incident run deep.
This violence once again depicts the volatile situation in buffer zones, areas separating the Kuki-held hills and Meitei-dominated Imphal Valley. The tension in these zones is emblematic of the broader ethnic and political divides plaguing Manipur.
Why Security Forces Were Moved into Saibol
For days leading up to the movement of security forces into Saibol village, escalating violence had already left several civilians and security personnel injured in gunfire exchanges in Thamnapokpi and Sanasabi villages, located in the Imphal East district. Reports suggest that gunfights between armed groups had resulted in injuries to at least four individuals, including a police officer.
In response to this deteriorating situation, security forces launched joint operations to dismantle bunkers used by the armed groups. On Monday, these forces attempted to occupy the Saibol area as part of their efforts to stabilize the region.
These actions were met with resistance. Kuki organizations began protesting against the presence of central forces in the area. Their anger intensified after women from their community were allegedly baton-charged on December 31 while blocking the forces’ movement. According to the protesters, these women were opposing what they termed the “forceful occupation” of community bunkers by the security personnel.
However, something needs to be said here, irrespective of which side of the clashing groups one may side with, the fact is that for years Kuki women have been targeting security forces with allegations that allege extreme violations including rape and torture. The modus operandi has most often been “stripping” in front of the forces and later crying fowl.
The December 31 action by the security forces prompted the Kangpokpi-based Committee on Tribal Unity (COTU) to stage a blockade of National Highway 2. This critical transportation route serves as a lifeline for the Imphal Valley, home to the Meitei community. The blockade disrupted the movement of essential goods, escalating tensions further.
Manipur Conflict Is As Complicated As It Can Get
The Manipur conflict is a tangled web of ethnic tensions, territorial disputes, and historical grievances.
The Kuki tribe, which comprises at least 32 sub-tribes, shares the hills of Manipur and parts of Myanmar with the Naga tribe. Both groups have armed insurgent factions and aspirations for their own homelands, with overlapping territorial claims.
The dominant Meitei community, on the other hand, is staunchly opposed to any redrawing of Manipur’s administrative boundaries or political arrangements.
The Kuki’s demands for a separate state or autonomous territory have enraged the Meitei populace. Simultaneously, the Naga’s push for independence is unacceptable to both the Manipur state government and the Indian central government.
Root Causes of the Current Crisis
The immediate trigger for the recent clashes was the inclusion of the Meitei community in the list of Scheduled Tribes, granting them access to affirmative action benefits. This move was fiercely opposed by the Naga and Kuki communities, drawing parallels to debates around affirmative action policies in other parts of the world.
However, the roots of the conflict run deeper.
The 2021 military coup in Myanmar led to a civil war, displacing thousands of Chin refugees, who are ethnically related to the Kuki. Over 40,000 refugees fled to Mizoram, where the Zo tribes form a majority, while around 8,250 entered Manipur. This influx raised concerns among the Naga and Meitei communities about demographic shifts favoring the Kuki.
The ongoing unrest in Manipur, can also be traced back to a series of controversial actions by the Meitei-dominated government in 2022. These actions, which were framed as a campaign to evict “illegal settlers” from reserved forest areas, have been seen by the Kuki-Zo community as a targeted attack on their tribe. Accusations of poppy cultivation in these areas added fuel to the fire, leading to widespread protests and escalations.
In March 2022, the Manipur government unilaterally withdrew from a ceasefire agreement with two Kuki-Zo insurgent groups: the Kuki National Army and the Zomi Revolutionary Army. These groups have long been advocating for a Kuki-dominated territory under their own administration. The withdrawal marked a turning point, further worsening tensions between the communities.
The Explosion of Violence
The situation spiraled out of control on May 3, 2022, when clashes erupted between the Meitei and Kuki communities. Despite the deployment of the Indian military and paramilitary forces, peace remains elusive. Currently, over 10,000 military personnel, an additional 30,000 paramilitary forces, and nearly 30,000 state police officers are stationed in Manipur. Yet, the violence persists.
Adding to the chaos, the state has seen an unprecedented looting of armories. Over 4,500 weapons, including AK-47s, assault rifles, light machine guns, and around 500,000 rounds of ammunition, have been looted—primarily from Meitei-majority areas. Both sides have heavily armed themselves, building sandbagged bunkers and turning Manipur into a war zone.
Modi’s Still Long Silence, Why Sir?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s response to the Manipur crisis has drawn widespread criticism. For months, he remained silent, making his first public statement only on July 19, 2022, after a horrifying video went viral.
The video showed two Kuki women being paraded naked by a mob of Meitei men, with one of the women allegedly gang-raped. Modi called the incident “shameful” and promised that the guilty would not be spared.
Despite these assurances, action was slow. The incident, reported on May 18, 2022, saw arrests only after Modi’s statement. To date, just seven individuals—six from the mob and one who recorded the video—have been arrested.
Meanwhile, Chief Minister N. Biren Singh has justified the state’s Internet ban, citing the proliferation of such cases, and has called for the death penalty for those involved in the viral incident.
The Political Impasse and International Ripples
What is really unfathomable is that the Manipur crisis didn’t see the light of day in India’s parliament until 8 August, a staggering two weeks after the session began.
Despite relentless demands from opposition parties for an official statement, Prime Minister Narendra Modi remained conspicuously absent. It wasn’t until the newly formed opposition bloc, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), spearheaded by the Congress party, brought a no-confidence motion against his government that Modi finally showed up.
The outcome of the confidence vote was a foregone conclusion, with Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) holding a comfortable majority. However, the opposition staged a walkout, underscoring their dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the Manipur crisis.
Even this dramatic parliamentary showdown failed to galvanize the Modi administration into action. The silence and inaction of the central government in the face of escalating violence have been nothing short of alarming. The state government, led by Chief Minister N. Biren Singh, has similarly failed to take meaningful steps to restore peace and order.
Supreme Court’s Mixed Signals
In July 2022, the Supreme Court of India took suo motu cognizance of the unfolding tragedy in Manipur. Then-Chief Justice D.Y. Chandrachud labeled the viral video of two women being paraded naked as “deeply disturbing” and condemned the situation as “the grossest of constitutional abuse.” “If the government does not act, we will,” Chandrachud warned, igniting a flicker of hope for justice.
However, the Supreme Court’s initial resolve seems to have fizzled out. Months later, the apex court appears reluctant to delve into the worsening crisis.
Last week, it shifted its focus to remedial measures, including compensating property loss, penalizing encroachers, and rehabilitating displaced individuals in relief camps. “The Center and State government must act in Manipur. Not us,” the court remarked, effectively sidestepping the broader systemic failures.
Mizoram’s Rising Anxiety
Meanwhile, the unrest in Manipur has sent shockwaves into neighboring Mizoram. The dominant Mizo tribe, ethnically linked to the Kuki, is growing increasingly alarmed about the plight of their kin. This has heightened tensions in a region already teetering on the edge due to the spillover effects of Myanmar’s ongoing civil war.
Manipur’s conflict, intricately tied to Myanmar’s turmoil, now threatens to engulf ethnic groups in a wider regional clash.
The lack of decisive action by the Indian government only adds fuel to the fire. In Manipur itself, where tensions simmer and violence erupts sporadically, the path to peace looks perilously narrow.