Politics
China, Pakistan Wrap Up Counterterror Drills Over Attack Concerns. China-Pakistan Relations An Evolving Story From Deepening Ties To Being At The Crossroads. What’s The Sum In 2024?
China and Pakistan have just wrapped up nearly three weeks of joint counterterror drills, signaling deeper military cooperation between the two nations. This comes as China is ramping up pressure on Pakistan to do more to protect its citizens and infrastructure from attacks in the region.
The joint security efforts are part of the evolving relationship between the two countries, especially with Pakistan sharing a long border with China’s Xinjiang region. Xinjiang is crucial for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) but also a hotspot for security concerns, particularly with Uyghur separatist groups like the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. Some of these groups have reportedly found refuge in parts of Pakistan, especially in Gilgit-Baltistan.
Through these joint operations, China is looking to tackle security threats posed by Uyghur separatists in Pakistan. This could lead to an expanded Chinese military presence in regions like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, areas where Chinese projects and personnel have been targeted by separatists.
There are even reports that China and Pakistan are close to finalizing an agreement for joint security companies to safeguard Chinese projects and workers.
Pakistan has historically been wary of allowing Chinese security forces to operate in the country, citing local laws and regulations. However, the growing security concerns, especially after recent attacks, might push Pakistan to ease some of these restrictions. Currently, Pakistan’s military already provides significant protection for Chinese workers and CPEC projects, but Beijing may want more control over security, which could lead to changes in the way Chinese private security companies operate in the country.
The Joint Drills
The joint counterterrorism drills, known as Warrior-8, involved over 300 troops from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and focused on counterterrorism operations. The exercise included live-fire simulations, drone reconnaissance, counter-attacks, and airborne assaults. It also marked the first joint exercise between the two militaries since 2019.
China’s growing diplomatic pressure on Pakistan comes after a string of attacks on Chinese infrastructure and citizens in Pakistan. Following a suicide bombing in Karachi that killed two Chinese nationals, China’s foreign ministry called on Pakistan to tighten security and address the “security loopholes.”
This increased collaboration between the two countries reflects the ongoing shifts in their relationship, with both sides looking to strengthen their strategic ties amid rising security challenges.
A spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has called on Islamabad to implement “more targeted measures” to ensure full protection for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the safety of Chinese personnel, projects, and institutions in Pakistan.
China’s Inroads Into Pakistan
Thousands of Chinese nationals are currently working on infrastructure projects in Pakistan as part of CPEC, a major initiative under China’s Belt and Road project. Beijing has reportedly pressured Islamabad to allow Chinese security staff to provide protection for these workers.
Last month, it was reported that China sent a written proposal to Pakistan, suggesting that security forces from both countries be allowed to cross borders to help with counterterrorism missions and conduct joint operations. However, neither side has confirmed the proposal.
Pakistan has been actively involved in military operations against separatist insurgents, particularly in Balochistan, which is home to key CPEC projects. In late November, Pakistani forces killed four terrorists in separate incidents in the province. These operations are aimed at deterring militant groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army, which accuses Pakistan of “colonizing” the region with China’s help.
Despite the ongoing attacks on Chinese projects, including a suicide bombing near a Chinese dam in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that killed five Chinese engineers and their Pakistani driver, no group has claimed responsibility for some of these incidents. This has added to the pressure on Islamabad to ramp up security measures for Chinese nationals and infrastructure in the country.
The Highs And Lows And Where Now In 2024?
As China and Pakistan continue to strengthen their ties, their relationship seems to be at a crossroads. While reports suggest deepening cooperation, the dynamics between the two countries are becoming more complex.
During the 20-year U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, Pakistan played a balancing act between Washington and Beijing, while also relying on China for military and political support, especially in its rivalry with India. Since Pakistan’s first nuclear weapons test in 1998, the strategic alliance with China has deepened, largely driven by geopolitical interests.
However, this alliance has come under scrutiny, particularly from Pakistan’s perspective.
While China’s foreign policy is based on principles like respect for sovereignty and peaceful coexistence, its dealings with Pakistan suggest an unequal relationship. As Pakistan’s dependence on China grows, its autonomy seems to be diminishing, and its vulnerability to Beijing’s influence is becoming more evident.
Pakistan’s Autonomy In Question
China’s growing influence in Pakistan is revealing a complex and somewhat paradoxical relationship. While the two countries have long claimed to be mutual partners, China’s increasing involvement in Pakistan’s economy, infrastructure, energy, and security sectors is pushing Pakistan into a more dependent position, eroding its autonomy.
At the heart of this relationship is the $65 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is a key part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Launched in 2013, the BRI has attracted over 140 countries, with CPEC being one of its flagship projects.
While CPEC has undeniably boosted Pakistan’s strategic importance to China, it has come at the cost of Pakistan’s independence. The country now finds itself increasingly reliant on China, both economically and strategically. While Pakistan aims to follow China’s development model, the challenges of doing so are becoming overwhelming.
As China continues to pour money into Pakistan, the country is sinking deeper into debt. With over $90 billion in debt repayments due over the next three years, a significant portion of which is owed to China, Pakistan recently secured a $7 billion IMF bailout to avoid default.
The bailout came with a hefty price tag, relying on debt rollovers from countries like China, which Pakistan has asked for a five-year extension on several loans. This raises serious concerns about Pakistan’s financial credibility and its ability to repay its debts in the near future. Despite these risks, China’s investments continue, signaling that Beijing’s focus may be less on regional development and more on expanding its geopolitical influence.
China’s Game Plan
Historically, China has relied on host countries to protect its interests, but as its global economic presence grows, Beijing is increasingly stepping in as a security provider. This shift is evident in how the BRI is now integrated into China’s Global Security Initiative, positioning China not just as an economic partner but as a key player in global security.
Beijing has emphasized to Islamabad that a stable and secure environment is essential for the success of CPEC. To that end, China has pushed Pakistan to align with the Global Security Initiative, which aims to protect Chinese workers and investments by cracking down on terrorism, arms smuggling, and other disruptions.
In a recent high-level meeting, China and Pakistan agreed to conduct joint security exercises in sensitive regions like Gilgit-Baltistan and Xinjiang, and to train local police officers at the Xinjiang Police Academy. This collaboration is indicative of how China’s growing role in Pakistan is not just about economic development, but also about increasing its security presence and influence in the region.
China is Pakistan’s primary supplier of military equipment, including aircraft, submarines, tanks, and missiles. Between 2019 and 2023, a staggering 82% of Pakistan’s arms imports came from China, making it one of the biggest buyers of Chinese weaponry. This defense trade not only generates significant revenue for Chinese manufacturers but also strengthens the long-term military ties between the two nations.
For China, supporting Pakistan’s military helps maintain a strategic ally in South Asia, where India’s influence continues to rise. Pakistan’s military strength serves as a counterbalance to India’s dominance, which aligns with China’s broader regional interests. However, if Pakistan fails to secure Chinese projects adequately, Beijing’s patience may wear thin.
Cracks in China-Pakistan Relations
The relationship between Islamabad and Washington has seen its ups and downs, especially after former Prime Minister Imran Khan accused the US of orchestrating his removal in April 2022. However, ties between the two have improved over the past year, with high-level visits from both sides.
In December 2023, General Munir, along with Lieutenant General Nadeem Anjum, visited the US for a week, engaging in discussions on defense, security, and economic matters. General Munir also encouraged American investors and the Pakistani diaspora to invest in Pakistan.
Although US-Pakistan relations have mostly been centered around security, Washington may want to broaden its engagement with Islamabad to prevent Pakistan from becoming too reliant on China.
The US has played a crucial behind-the-scenes role in helping Pakistan secure loans from the IMF and other Western financial institutions, which is essential for avoiding a default. Additionally, the Biden administration’s muted response to Pakistan’s internal issues, such as election irregularities and human rights concerns, has helped Islamabad dodge international pressure.
But does this thawing of US-Pakistan relations raise concerns for China?
To maintain its close relationship with Beijing, Pakistan’s civilian and military leaders regularly issue pro-China statements.
During his visit to Washington in December 2023, General Munir told American officials that Pakistan avoids bloc politics and seeks balanced relations with all friendly nations. However, as the rivalry between China and the US heats up, especially in the Indo-Pacific, Pakistan may find it increasingly difficult to stay neutral.
For China, external loans or financial aid to Pakistan from the US or other countries are vital for safeguarding its investments in the country and therefore, China might be willing to share the burden of Pakistan’s ongoing economic struggles.
Despite economic challenges, Sino-Pakistani defense relations, primarily focused on countering India, remain strong and could become a force multiplier for China in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), especially against US influence.
Pakistan’s role in China’s strategic calculations remains critical.
It helps counterbalance India and the US in the IOR, so China is likely to continue its support for Pakistan, even if it faces some financial losses. However, Beijing may no longer tolerate Pakistan’s lax attitude toward ensuring the safety of Chinese nationals.
Growing anti-China sentiment in Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan, where locals are protesting to reclaim their land and resources, could complicate matters. These protests against Chinese projects and the military presence are adding tension to the already fragile dynamic between the two countries.